Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 21.340601 25.679853 30.480226 36.157628 42.660642 49.848095 58.363234
2025-02-23 14.734219 20.321495 27.170881 36.064346 47.175219 60.461551 77.400594
2025-03-02 10.804047 16.660937 24.453911 35.323044 49.800939 68.113814 92.677835
2025-03-09 8.433766 14.343864 22.780631 35.268361 52.784953 75.942009 108.241445
2025-03-16 6.233161 11.716532 20.114778 33.284339 52.683940 79.401032 118.013378
2025-03-23 5.299504 10.815987 19.758500 34.432509 56.876725 88.755265 136.058647
2025-03-30 4.249006 9.472328 18.461332 33.916358 58.468946 94.426135 149.178190
2025-04-06 3.784634 9.068687 18.609811 35.627398 63.466325 105.198199 169.991959
2025-04-13 2.810714 7.450717 16.400153 33.168473 61.680074 105.735406 175.868625
2025-04-20 2.415040 6.919674 16.051666 33.795823 64.823969 113.818456 193.206864
2025-04-27 2.114976 6.525396 15.892790 34.712611 68.467174 122.811470 212.262765
2025-05-04 1.868202 6.194382 15.801869 35.720312 72.296771 132.244522 232.343525
2025-05-11 1.594699 5.768317 15.540834 36.557450 76.209999 142.532699 255.083229
2025-05-18 1.288158 5.162947 14.807088 36.424166 78.457107 150.348979 274.522016
2025-05-25 1.005606 4.513956 13.839748 35.674400 79.475601 156.122648 290.897195
2025-06-01 0.814285 4.067216 13.252999 35.619118 81.741643 164.078589 311.119308
2025-06-08 0.583394 3.364500 11.863760 33.619067 80.061758 165.047155 319.733550
2025-06-15 0.508058 3.211126 11.886606 34.776527 84.661929 177.291465 347.782954
2025-06-22 0.396149 2.841928 11.227214 34.256207 85.816510 183.382494 365.551074
2025-06-29 0.359362 2.794870 11.494925 35.981023 91.703902 198.346879 399.169145
2025-07-06 0.241646 2.256686 10.133672 33.502259 88.549819 196.433248 403.236221
2025-07-13 0.202699 2.116655 10.006570 34.134696 92.095770 207.215120 430.087594
2025-07-20 0.173866 2.016682 9.992160 35.058887 96.337072 219.493152 460.019742